Aviation Week & Space Technology

Space assets play a vital role in current and perceived future battlefield needs, with communications satellites an important part of networking forces. But program problems and budget restrictions are combining to change thinking on how capabilities should be developed and deployed.

While NASA agonizes over how to replace the space shuttle and continue human spaceflight within the budget available, its program to stimulate the private sector to develop commercial space transport services is proceeding faster than expected. With the successful first flight of its Dragon capsule in December, Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

The European Space Agency is poised to begin work on a data relay satellite network that will permit near-real-time download of remote-sensing data. The network—which is smaller than its U.S. counterpart—will be the first in the world to use high-throughput laser optical terminals, which permit transmission at broadband throughput rates, on an operational basis, and it will be the first to draw on market financing.

The normal up-and-down cycle of the aerospace industry has been interrupted by a global recession that has pushed recovery to the right. During the downturn, the turbine engine market has been sustained in large part by military orders, accelerated by the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. military is recapitalizing its helicopter fleet with several large procurement programs that will continue through the 2011-20 forecast period.

A year ago, the airfreight market was in the doldrums. The decline was so severe that on a global basis the industry was talking about “a decade of lost growth.” Fast-forward 12 months, and cargo traffic is at record levels. It hardly seems possible, but that is how rapidly the airfreight industry recovered after the “great recession” ended.

Coming off a surprisingly profitable 2010, the world’s airlines enter 2011 with a strong tailwind. The industry is expected to make money again this year, provided the recovery isn’t stalled by sluggish GDP growth, high fuel prices or governments seeking additional tax revenue. All three are legitimate concerns moving forward, as are the impact of various legislative and governmental policy initiatives. Also to be considered are the factors under more direct control of the carriers, such as capacity discipline, merger proposals and alliance maneuvering.

As an important safety device on airplanes, airbags have received a boost from a recently released study by the National Transportation Safety Board. The NTSB says there are 18,000 airbag-equipped seats on 7,000 aircraft in the U.S. That’s quite a bit of growth, especially since the FAA did not approve them until 2003. Already, there are more than 30 manufacturers offering airbags as standard or optional equipment.

European Commission managers say they’re happy with the progress made with the Galileo satellite navigation system and will commit to ensuring that the constellation is completed, even though the cost will rise more than 50%.

Manned and unmanned come together in the concept of “optionally piloted” aircraft, to be demonstrated in mid-2011 by Sikorsky using a UH-60M helicopter. The modified Black Hawk will fly a fully autonomous cargo mission, from taking off through picking up a load and flying a route, to returning for the next pickup.

When Chinese President Hu Jintao announced a $19-billion order for 185 Boeing 737s and 15 Boeing 777s at his summit with President Barack Obama, it was good news—but not new news. The good news is that Hu’s comments authorized the airlines involved to buy the airplanes. The old news is that all of the orders had been placed between 2007-09 and previously appeared on Boeing’s list of firm orders, either in the “unidentified customer” category or as orders from Air China, China Southern Airlines and Xiamen Airlines.

Concerns are mounting in the U.K. that antisubmarine warfare capabilities are eroding because of competing operational demands and equipment decisions. The fear, voiced by government and industry officials, goes beyond the decision last year to cancel the Nimrod MRA4 maritime patrol aircraft project. Adequate training in some high-end skills to hunt submarines is no longer being done, warns an industry official. “We have skills-fade,” says a military official.

Enhanced vision systems (EVS) allowing pilots to spot the runway earlier in reduced visibility, and synthetic vision systems (SVS) providing better awareness of terrain and obstacles, are coming together. In 2011, under contract from NASA, Honeywell Aerospace and Gulfstream Aerospace Corp.

Private industry could be prepared to go where NASA fears to tread and develop a spaceplane to replace the space shuttle and ferry crews to and from the International Space Station. But if industry succeeds, it will be thanks to decades of work by the space agency on lifting-body reentry vehicles.

Military engines are big business, a reality underlined by the controversy over the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter’s alternate engine that raged throughout 2010. By year-end, Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engine was flying on all three variants of the F-35, while General Electric and Rolls-Royce were ground testing their rival F136 in both conventional-takeoff-and-landing (CTOL) and short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing (Stovl) versions and planning a first flight in the F-35 in December 2011.

Increased persistence will be a key theme in 2011 as a new generation of unmanned aircraft takes to the air, from hybrid airships to hydrogen-fueled high-fliers. The year will also see the first flights of up to three stealthy unmanned strike demonstrators as operators strive to assess how far, and how fast, autonomous technology can be developed to augment, and perhaps replace, manned aircraft across a broad range of missions.

Increased support for European launchers and approval of the International Space Station lifetime extension will be at the top of the European Space Agency’s playbook for 2011, despite a continued spending freeze.

Republicans on the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology named a freshman Mississippi congressman who represents many workers at NASA’s Stennis Space Center as chairman of the subcommittee overseeing NASA. Rep. Steven Palazzo will chair the subcommittee on space and aeronautics. The panel’s Republicans include veterans James Sensenbrenner (Wis.), a former chairman of the full science panel, and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher(Calif.), as well as freshman Mo Brooks of Huntsville, Ala., home of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center.

Should the government be allowed to declare a contractor in default and then invoke a secrecy privilege to withhold information the contractor says it needs to dispute that finding in court? Two decades after the Pentagon canceled the Navy’s A-12 Avenger II stealth aircraft, the fight over who is at fault for the program’s delays and cost overruns has brought that question before the U.S. Supreme Court. Last week, justices on the court sharply questioned lawyers on both sides of the dispute.

During 2010, manufacturers began to report that conditions were stabilizing in the civil rotorcraft market, though the general consensus is that growth cannot be expected until 2012 or later.

Ever since Boeing absorbed McDonnell Douglas in the late 1990s, the large-airliner industry has been dominated by an Airbus/Boeing duopoly that has enjoyed nearly unchallenged market supremacy. This situation has changed, with the two aerospace giants now facing serious challenges from new entrants to the market. And the emergence of more competitors is driving development and production decisions in Toulouse and Seattle.

Globalization, new technologies, fierce competition, winners and losers, beginnings and endings. There will be no shortage of interesting developments in the aerospace and defense industry this year. Here are 11 to keep an eye on.

Light helicopters widely used for training and tasks ranging from cattle wrangling to urban policing are typically powered by piston engines or small turbines. Piston power is threatened by the diminishing accessibility of avgas worldwide; and while turbines burn widely available jet fuel, they are more expensive and less fuel-efficient.

“Pilot shortage” is a threat that has waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality—except for some unfortunate airlines in high-growth markets where demand already outpaces supply. Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.

Brazil may shelve its F-X2 fighter competition among the Boeing F/A-18E/F, Dassault Rafale and Saab Gripen. Meanwhile, the government has given approval for Embraer to complete overhauls of air force AMX fighters. The company plans to fly and deliver the first of the structurally enhanced AMX prototypes next year. The program is a follow-on to electronics upgrades of 43 of 56 AMXs. The air force also is set to receive a small number of Elbit Systems Hermes 450 unmanned aircraft through the Israeli company’s Brazil-based subsidiary.

Strong commercial aircraft orders in 2010 are a sign the industry is beginning its recovery from the global economic downturn. As a result, Forecast International expects engine production to increase starting in 2011. Large backlogs were maintained through the downturn, putting original equipment manufacturers in a good position for the turn-around. At the same time engine companies have continued to develop technology aimed at increasing fuel efficiency while lowering noise and emissions.