Aviation Week & Space Technology

Years of slack demand and intense competition have taken their toll on the expendable launch vehicle (ELV) market, leaving just two major players in the commercial launch sector: Russia’s International Launch Services (ILS) and Europe’s Arianespace. The outlook for these two companies has lately improved, with higher launch rates translating into bigger profit margins. At the same time, major commercial satellite operators such as SES Global and Intelsat have initiated large spacecraft programs that will require the services of Arianespace and ILS, among others.

The U.S. Army plans to deploy three Boeing YMQ-18A (A160T Hummingbird) long-endurance unmanned helicopters to Afghanistan as a quick-reaction capability (QRC). A U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency A160T will have the BAE Systems Argus-IS gigapixel wide-area surveillance sensor and a signals-intelligence package and be deployed this year. Two aircraft provided by U.S. Special Operations Command will follow in Fiscal 2012. The QRC will help define requirements for an Army vertical-takeoff-and-landing unmanned aircraft program to start this year.

Compared with the decades-long evolution of military jet engines to ever-higher performance, the certification of front-line fleets to fly on alternative fuels is taking place in hyper speed—and faster than the fuels can be produced commercially. The U.S. Air Force expects by early this year to have all its aircraft certified to fly on a 50:50 blend of conventional JP-8 and synthetic jet fuel produced from coal or natural gas using the Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) process.

Boeing’s latest delay in its 787 schedule involves pushing back first delivery to no earlier than July. The action leaves a string of questions about how the program’s protracted maturation is affecting the company’s long-term goals for dominating mid-sized international services.

The U.S. Air Force is assessing revised proposals from bidders to upgrade navigation and air traffic management equipment for the KC-10 refueler after last year’s selection of Boeing was botched. The service stopped work on Boeing’s $216-million development contract in October, saying there was a “need for corrective action associated with the original source selection.” Boeing, GE Aviation/L-3 and Rockwell Collins have submitted revised bids. USAF plans to select a winner by June.

Boeing says flight-testing of the P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft will continue expanding toward coverage of the full envelope, following the completion of full-scale static testing of the 737-based airframe on Jan. 7. The series of tests, which began in May 2009, put static vehicle S1 through 154 different conditions in which it sustained loads equal to or greater than those expected during operational flights. Boeing says no primary structure failures occurred during the tests, 74 of which subjected the airframe to 150% of the highest expected flight loads.

Boeing Co.’s share price rose 2% on Jan. 18, helping to push the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest close since mid-2008. But there was little reason to celebrate. That day, the company revealed that first delivery of its new 787 jet would slip another six months, to the third quarter of 2011, as the program recovers from an inflight electrical fire last November. If you’re counting, this is the seventh delay—some observers claim the eighth—for the 787, an aircraft originally scheduled to enter service in May 2008 (see p. 24).

Airbus faces at least a few more months of turbulence on A380 deliveries as it works to resolve supplier problems impeding a higher output.

Boeing has recorded its first orders in 2011: two 777s for American Airlines.

Despite the recent global economic crisis, the worldwide missile market will generate production worth an estimated $107 billion over the next 10 years. This market consists of air defense, air-to-air, anti-armor, anti-radar, anti-ship and strike systems. Advances in technology are allowing a single weapon to perform multiple roles, blurring divisions between market segments. This is especially noticeable in the anti-ship and strike missile markets, but it is also happening in other segments.

Business opportunities for Western avionics manufacturers are expanding as new players enter the civil aircraft market and need the capabilities and technologies—as well as the reputations—of established suppliers to make their products competitive globally. As companies supplying systems for Chinese and Russian aircraft programs risk creating competitors in the long run, continued investment in new technologies and capabilities to stay ahead of the field is taking on increased importance.

The business jet market was particularly hard hit by the lagging global economy, and several programs were deferred or outright canceled. The rebound in business jet production is expected to begin in 2012, and engine manufacturers are staying busy developing variants for these new aircraft.

Near-simultaneous images of the Andromeda Galaxy by a pair of European Space Agency spacecraft illustrate the value of astronomy at wavelengths that are obscured by Earth’s atmosphere. In this combined image of the familiar spiral, crafted from observations last month by the Herschel and XMM-Newton space telescopes, young stars being formed in dust rings sprawling in concentric circles across the galaxy appear in orange, while dying stars show up in a blue cluster centered on the galactic core.

The prospect for a new delivery record and the growing backlog that Airbus forecasts for 2011 might suggest the dark days are behind the European aircraft maker, but plenty of headwind persists that could cause serious disruptions to the business. Management attention is shifting from the crisis of recent years—when airlines deferred and canceled orders—to the pitfalls of increasing output while facing supplier bottlenecks, rising raw material costs and questions about the duration of this up cycle.

Two major trends will emerge over the next several years to meet the growing demand for electronic warfare systems. First, key systems will be installed on a wider variety of aircraft in response to the need for increasingly sophisticated airborne self-protection. Second, next-generation technology will be developed and deployed to meet the rising demand for advanced electronic-attack systems able to hit enemy radar and communications systems before aircraft are even detected.

Southwest Airlines foresees ending up with 50-100 Boeing 737-800 aircraft and will take delivery of 20 in 2012. Southwest, which is converting many of its 737-700 orders to the larger aircraft, still is evaluating how many more to convert for 2013 and beyond. Southwest could use more than 50 of the -800s in the domestic route system now, says Chairman, President and CEO Gary Kelly. It plans to configure the -800s for about 175 seats, nearly 40 more than on its -700s.

As Mexican low-fare carrier Interjet looks to expand its fleet, it is putting its faith in an aircraft most other Western operators have shied away from so far: the Sukhoi Superjet 100 regional jet. The airline will operate the 15 SSJ100s it has ordered starting in the second half of 2012 alongside its fleet of Airbus A320s. It also holds options for five more Superjet 100s.

Demand for satellite services remains strong, despite the global economic upheaval, especially in developing markets such as Eastern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. In the near future, broadband Internet and direct television broadcasting will be primary areas of growth in the satellite market. Militaries around the world, seeking to improve connectivity between units and individual soldiers, are also an important source of growth in the communications satellite market.

The concept of personal air transportation using small aircraft flying between small airports as an alternative to congested and inconvenient hub-and-spoke airline travel has taken a beating in the last couple of years, with the credit crunch forcing several air-taxi operators out of business. But the idea refuses to die.

The worldwide market for unmanned aerial systems (UAS) has seen unprecedented growth in the last nine years. Sales over the next 10 years will earn UAS companies $20.2 billion, with another $20.6 billion to be spent on R&D during the decade. Yet the wild spending spree of the last few years is coming to an end. The U.S., which spends more on UAS than all other nations combined, is cutting back on expenditures. Meanwhile, most other countries are having trouble finding the money to support their domestic programs.

The military rotorcraft market has seen consistent growth in recent years, in terms of annual production, and most indications point to continued progress for a few more years. But questions surround the long-term future of the market, with implications for the industry as a whole and the U.S. domestic manufacturing base in particular.

High-energy laser weapons are inching closer to reality, moving out of the laboratory and into field testing, but the steps from demonstration to development, procurement and deployment depend on convincing military commanders they are effective and Pentagon officials they are affordable.

A United Launch Alliance Delta IV Heavy lifted a bus-sized classified satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office into orbit from Space Launch Complex-6 (SLC-6) at Vandenberg AFB, Calif., on Jan. 20—the largest rocket ever launched from the West Coast.

Delta Air Lines is asking aircraft manufacturers for proposals to supply as many as 200 large, medium and small narrowbody aircraft—potentially pressuring Boeing to come up with a more robust response to the Airbus A320 New Engine Option (NEO) and Bombardier CSeries. Delta CEO Richard Anderson says he expects it will take his airline “the better part of the year” to choose a manufacturer or manufacturers for its possibly massive order, which also could include as many as 200 options.