Aviation Week & Space Technology

While the financial results of the world airline industry have steadily improved since the disastrous year of 2001, hopes for a super-extended recovery cycle may prove to be unfounded. And, when all is said and done, 2007 or perhaps this year could be the peak of the present recovery.

The global economy continues to drive a robust market for commercial aircraft and business jets as well as the avionics needed to help them adapt to changing air traffic control requirements and safety concerns.

A South Korea surveillance aircraft project aimed at producing a highly capable drone as big as the General Atomics Mariner would advance the country’s expertise in unmanned aircraft and ensure against unavailability of the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk. The South Korean air force program is running behind that of a smaller drone, the army’s KUS-9, which is supposed to be ready for production by next year.

The U.S. Marine Corps has been keeping largely quiet about how the MV-22 Ospreys deployed to Iraq have been doing, but the service has started to release a few details. Marine Medium Tiltrotor Sqdn. 263, or “Thunder Chickens,” operating at Al Asad in the Al Anbar province since October have completed around 2,000 flight hours. Mission-capable rate has only averaged 68.1%, but the Marines stress no mission has been delayed or canceled. Moreover, they say the operational pace is the highest that troops have seen.

The Australian Defense Dept. has joined the U.S.-based Network-Centric Operations Industry Consortium (NCOIC) and will be a national member of the group’s advisory council, and its personnel will participate in technical teamwork. The group has more than 100 member organizations from 19 nations, including leading aerospace and defense companies in the U.S. and Europe plus civil and military government representatives from NATO nations. The group aims to foster open standards so computer networks will be compatible. See www.ncoic.org/home for more information.

For the next few years, production plans for military transport aircraft are uncertain due to the impending shutdowns of some lines, startups of others and continuing manufacture of some venerable types. The U.S. accounts for a huge share of transport production, manufacturing its own aircraft to fulfill its military needs. But the U.S. is joined in operations far from home by many other industrialized nations, some of which also manufacture transport aircraft to support their military operations.

Thales is moving closer to its goal of being able to offer a full slate of competitive cockpit systems now that it has been named the supplier for major portions of the A350XWB avionics suite.

Selex Sistemi Integrati is to supply the European Union its first dedicated Command and Control (C2) system—Euccis (European Union Command and Control Information System)—by 2010. The system comprises a fixed installation for more than 200 users to be set up in Brussels, as well as a deployable capability for 100 operations. Euccis is a strategic-level C2 capability designed to interface with national command centers and to be interoperable with NATO forces.

The U.K. could acquire an additional 14 Boeing Chinook helicopters specifically to meet Special Forces requirements. Special Forces are heavily committed in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, with available helicopter resources stretched. A Defense Ministry statement to the Parliamentary Defense Committee notes: “The Special Forces (SF) Heavy Lift Requirement remains extant. A program to procure 14 new SF capable heavy lift Chinook has been scoped and estimated in terms of cost and schedule.” A previous acquisition intended to provide eight Chinook Mk.

Lockheed Martin believes the price difference between its F-22 and Boeing’s F/A-18E/Fs is narrowing enough that Australia might change its mind about which fighter to buy. Lockheed Martin pegs the Raptor’s flyaway cost at about $140 million, while the Super Hornet comes in around $90 million. The extra bucks buy stealth, 2 mi. more altitude and supersonic cruise. On the other hand, the Super Hornet has a reduced radar signature, supersonic dash speed and a newer-generation active electronically scanned array radar.

Boeing and General Electric are flight-testing an improved combustor for baseline versions of the GE90 engine on the 777-200ER that is expected to increase time on wing by around 20%.

Business is booming for rotorcraft manufacturers. The outlook for the near term is so good that the biggest problem facing helicopter manufacturers is the capacity to fill orders. Demand for helicopters is extraordinarily strong on the commercial side of the market. Although this high-paced drive cannot continue indefinitely, the need to replace aging models and the underlying strength in economic conditions will prevent production levels from falling precipitously in the coming years.

By 2017 the commercial maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market worldwide will be worth more than $62 billion—up from $41 billion this year—as providers and airlines drive down costs while improving the value of services. That’s according to predictions by TeamSAI, an aviation consulting company that recently released a forecast report on MRO.

As the long-standing dispute over industrial subsidies to Airbus and Boeing plays out between the U.S. and EU, one can’t help but wonder whether the controversy has the potential to expand with the entry of the Russians and Chinese into the commercial aircraft market. With worldwide sales of new jet aircraft over the next 20 years projected to reach 28,600, it is no wonder these two highly capable countries seek entry into the market.

Thales is looking to become a supplier to the Russian armed forces as part of an effort to further expand the aerospace and defense contractor’s “multi-domestic” defense network.

Gulfstream Aerospace Corp., Rolls-Royce Deutschland and the University of Illinois Aerospace Engineering Dept. have agreed to cooperate on research related to the potential development of a supersonic business jet. The university will be chiefly involved in work aimed at mitigating sonic boom and will focus on the airplane’s engine intake and exhaust systems, in particular the bypass airflow that travels around the outside of the engine core.

Chinese aircraft conglomerate Avic 2 delivered 132 aircraft in 2007, 30 more than the year before. Its “industrial revenue” for the year rose 30.1% to 10.32 billion yuan ($1.42 billion).

Boeing is gearing up to attempt the first flight of the X-48B blended wing body (BWB) scaled demonstrator without fixed leading-edge slats after resuming flights following a four-month hiatus.

Modifications to correct a potentially deadly vibration from the solid-fuel first-stage of the Ares I crew launch vehicle could range from tweaking the geometry of the propellant inside the rocket motor to unlocking seat shock absorbers in the Orion capsule so they protect astronauts on launch as well as landing.

Raytheon is getting in on the oil boom. The defense electronics company has sold a radio frequency (RF) technology to multinational oil services giant Schlumberger Ltd., which hopes to use it to extract hard-to-reach oil deposits. The technology, developed jointly by Raytheon and CF Technologies, uses RF waves to heat shale to cause it to release deposits of thick oil. Critical fluids are then employed to act as a solvent to help transport the oil to the surface.

V Australia, the new long-haul carrier launched by Virgin Blue, will equip all 13 of its Boeing 777-300ERs (seven under firm order and six under option) with Rockwell Collins avionics. In addition to navigation and communications systems, the order covers transponders, traffic-alert and collision avoidance systems and Rockwell Collins multi-scan weather radar. Deliveries begin in September.

Changes are coming to airport security checkpoints around the world in 2008. In the U.S., because of evolving terrorist threats, congressional frustration with airport screeners’ performance and improvements in technology, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) plans to acquire and deploy equipment that can screen bottles for explosives and provide more revealing images of what airline passengers are carrying on their persons and in their bags.

Gulf Air of Bahrain has completed negotiations for 16 Boeing 787s with options for another eight. At list prices, the combined order would be worth $3.9 billion. In the interim, the airline is seeking to lease 787s to replace its Boeing 767s until deliveries begin. The airline’s chief executive, Bjorn Naf, says the 787 will be the cornerstone of the carrier’s fleet and should help “reestablish Gulf Air’s predominance” within the region. The airline also is discussing a potential purchase of A320s with Airbus.

What a difference a year makes. Early in 2007, when Aviation Week & Space Technology published its annual Source Book industry analyses and specification tables, the world economic outlook envisioned stability and growth, excellent conditions for the continued prosperity of the global aerospace industry. Recession was no more than a highly unlikely worst-case scenario that never happened.

The development of reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) by a select few aerospace companies continues, mostly due to the promise of lower launch costs versus those associated with expendable vehicles. Theoretically, not throwing away hardware saves the cost of reproducing expensive components. However, it’s doubtful RLVs ever will prove cheaper than their expendable cousins.