Podcast: Dubai Airshow—Boom Times Are Back

Emirates leads a long list of commercial aircraft orders announced at the show, but the fortunes of Airbus and Boeing differed. 

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Rush Transcript

Christine Boynton:

Welcome to this week's Check 6 Podcast. I'm Christine Boynton, Aviation Week senior editor for air transport. Today you find us at the Dubai Airshow at the end of day two. It's been a busy show with a flurry of orders, some expected, and others that were more of a surprise. So let's jump into it. Joining me are Jens Flottau, Aviation Week's executive editor for commercial aviation, and Guy Norris, Aviation Week's senior editor. Jens, let's kick it off with you and first talk about orders that have happened starting with Emirates. Even though that was expected, there were some interesting elements there as well. So can you walk us through that?

Jens Flottau:

Yeah, sure. So as you say, the order was expected. They've started to talk about this really over a year ago as part of their planned fleet expansion and fleet replacement into the 2030s. So what they did was, they ordered 92 777Xes. We'll go into the details with Guy a little bit. Surprisingly, they also kept the order for the 787s. Most of us expected them to drop them because they said before that they weren't convinced there was the right aircraft anymore. And also because Fly Dubai also ordered the 787. So we have two Dubai-based airlines operating the type. But the real surprise was something else, Guy.

Guy Norris:

First of all, I should say that we are recordings very late on the second day of the show. And what I thought was interesting about this whole thing actually was that we were there at Dubai 10 years ago, unbelievably when that mammoth order was really dropped, which launched the 777X to begin with. And it was a memorable day, wasn't it? Memorable show. So here we are a decade later, and the big difference was that, as Jens alluded to, this order for 777-8s, the shorter version of the two new next generation model was brought back from the dead essentially.

And the other reason it's ironic, is that it was really brought back from the dead because of a design change that was made for a product that was launched two years ago at the last Dubai Airshow, which was the 777-8 freighter. And to make the freighter fit, I think 31 main deck cargo containers meant just a little stretch, I think four frames of the fuselage. And hey presto, that was a magic number because it all of a sudden made a lot more sense as a passenger version too. And to the extent that Emirates suddenly got interested in it again. And we didn't expect that much interest. So they basically placed this big order for the -8 model, which really did come as a bit of a surprise.

Jens Flottau:

And Emirate said with the design changes, it really hit a sweet spot for them.

Guy Norris:

Yeah.

Jens Flottau:

Because it's a little bit larger than the -300. It's obviously smaller than the -9, it's got the range, so they just saw a good market for it.

Guy Norris:

Right. Absolutely. And so I think that's going to be perhaps another legacy of the Dubai shows that you've really started to see a filling out of the model. Now Boeing won't really say much about when the 8 is going enter into market, but the plan as far as we know now is that 2025, the -9 will finally get into service. Two years later, the freighter version will enter service, which is the new -8F. And it seems like 2030 is when they're aiming to bring in the new passenger model after that. So yeah, let's hope we're still here talking about successful debuts of those three in a few Dubai's time anyway.

Christine Boynton:

And how about the status of orders that we maybe were expecting and haven't happened yet that includes Saudia, Turkish and Riyadh? I know we had some expectations for each of those. How's that playing out so far?

Jens Flottau:

Well, there was one more element of the Emirates order, which was the Airbus side of it that we all expected. And that didn't happen. We were all wondering what was going on. We heard rumors about issues around the engines. And then Tim Clark, the Emirates president, confirmed here at the show saying that they were going to buy up to 50, A350-1000s, but they weren't happy with the durability reliability of the Trent XWB-97 engine. And that kind of derailed the order. So that was kind of a big deal. And from Airbus’s and Rolls-Royce's point of view, the concern is that this is not only an Emirates issue, but could affect the -1000 going forward also in other campaigns.

Guy Norris:

And the irony is that around the region, this show has been exemplified by other airlines around the North African and Asian parts of the world ordering more A350s, and -1000s at that as well. In fact, you talked about that, didn't you Jens coming into the show?

Jens Flottau:

Yeah. If you look back since the launch, since entered into the A350, the split was roughly like 80-20 in favor of the -900. And so it far outsold the -1000. This year, it's pretty much the other way around. The -1000 did well with a lot of new orders from big airlines like Lufthansa for example. But Emirates seems to have concerns about the engine operating in the harsh environment of the Gulf, very hot temperatures, of course, dust. And they've been pointing to maintenance guarantees that they would like to have 2,500 cycles on wing for the engine. And they claim that they've heard from the field that the actual numbers are way below that as low as 500 cycles. And of course, Tim Clark says that's not acceptable for them.

Guy Norris:

And Rolls has sort of said yes. We acknowledge the fact that this is a really rough environment for these engines to operate in, but they say, "Well, but just look at everybody else. Everybody else who's introduced to high-tech, not a new technology engine is suffering the same issues in this region." And one of the factors is that to get to the incredible efficiency numbers that all of these new generation engines are achieving, they've had to push up the operating temperature to the extent that... And the engine pressure ratios too, that they're squeezing every bit of energy out of the engine and they're not able to use the same amount of cooling air that they would not once have used to cool these film cool turbine blades, for example. They've optimized around performance levels, which were unbelievable not long ago, and people quickly forget that.

And as a result, they're running into the edges of their performance capability for materials for coating systems. And this is the result, you're paying really now for these massively great efficient engines in durability. Everybody's aware of this problem. GE and Safran have been working on improvements for the Leap engine. Pratt & Whitney, well, we know about those situations too. So it's not unique to Rolls, but of course in this particular case it's vital because the Rolls' engine is exclusive on the A350. So they have to deal with it and they know it. I think we're going to hear more of this as time goes by. But the big thing now is everybody's aware of it and they're going to be in these negotiations to see where exactly the happy point will be in those guarantees. So fascinating to watch really.

Jens Flottau:

And the demands go beyond durability now. Tim Clark said he wants more thrust of the engine too, right? Rolls is 97,000. Now he spoke about 107,000, but that's hard to achieve, right?

Guy Norris:

It really is, especially when you're also talking about maintaining those efficiency numbers and durability at the same time. To be fair, Rolls were sort of saying, "Look, he does have a point on durability. We know that we're trying to work on it," but they weren't really sure where he was coming from when it came to more power. So maybe it's giving a little bit of the game away as to what Emirates would like to do with a higher, more performance-capable aircraft for the future. Who knows? But one thing's for sure, trying to get more thrust out of a XWB at that point is not going to be easy.

Jens Flottau:

But I want to come back to Christine's original question, which was about some of the other orders.

Guy Norris:

Yes.

Jens Flottau:

Saudia-

Guy Norris:

Yes, nicely distracted. Yes, thank you.

Jens Flottau:

... Saudia, Riyadh, and of course Turkish Airlines. The biggest one would've been, it may still be, I should say the Turkish Airlines order. They have by now confirmed that it's 355 aircraft, all Airbus that includes options 240 firm, A321 Neos, and A350. We don't know the split between the two models. There's been behind the scenes discussions about when this is going to be announced on the Monday, on the Tuesday. So far it hasn't been announced. And the status now is that both Airbus and Turkish still need board approval for this big order. It's part of an even bigger order for about 600 aircraft in which Boeing will also play a role.

Guy Norris:

Yeah. But how and quite when we're not sure, I think in the negotiations have obviously been going on here at the show, but no news yet. So keep watching the space for Turkey, I think.

Jens Flottau:

Yeah. And on the two Saudi airlines, a lot of us expected them to announce something here. They have placed orders for 787s each 40 aircraft, and they were expected to be announcing narrow body orders in Dubai. My personal view is that Saudia will go with Neos and Riyadh Air will go with Max's. Big numbers involved too up to 100 aircraft each is what I've heard. And that will just be a matter of time. I think it's just not ready yet, it seems.

Guy Norris:

Right. But the message is pretty clear. The boom times have sort of echoed back here, haven't they, this show? I feel like it. Do you feel like that yet?

Jens Flottau:

Absolutely. And if you look at it, you've got... Don't forget Air India, IndiGo in the greater region here, Riyadh Air, Saudia, Emirates, Turkish Airlines, to an extent, everyone is chasing the same traffic. So you have to wonder whether this will play out for everyone and whether there's people that will be left behind. Only time will tell. The Saudis say they're not so much focused on connecting traffic, they're serving their home market, which is probably true, but this is a lot of aircraft coming in.

Christine Boynton:

Well, in two orders we haven't talked about are EgyptAir and Ethiopian Airlines. They're both older airlines. They have long histories. And at the show, they both spoke about some very ambitious growth plans. So EgyptAir has announced two deals. One of it is an order for A350-900s. They're also going to be leasing some Maxes from ALC and their CEO sort of quip to the audience, "We're looking to make EgyptAir great again. Let's make EgyptAir great again." So he's hoping to ramp up an expansion of his fleet and also the network. Similarly, Ethiopian Airlines placed an order for up to 67 Boeing aircraft, and that includes an order for MAXs as well as some 787-9s. So they expressed some renewed confidence in those MAX airplanes following the crash in 2019, and they're actually looking to double their fleet by 2035. So those will certainly be interesting to watch and see how they compete with the carriers here in the Middle East region.

Guy Norris:

And of course, the other thing about the show is that we've seen some new airplanes here, which some of them ones we saw. Some of the others we didn't see.

Jens Flottau:

Some of those we didn't.

Guy Norris:

But one of the things I thought was interesting was the first IAI developed Boeing 777-300ERSF, this special freighter. All great airplanes come to that point in their lives and careers where a new era beckons, for those that are able, and this is the moment I think for the big 777s perhaps prematurely in some cases, but it's an ex-Emirates airplane coming back to its roots almost. Of course, STC still beckons... Sorry, Supplemental Type Certification, which will allow it to enter service. But there's at least four others apparently lined up behind it to be converted. And it's competing with two other programs in the US and of course this one is fast, it's done and it's flying. So I think that's an interesting development. And it was one of several P2F's Passenger-to-Freighter conversions that were here. There was a couple of Airbus A320 conversions I think, right? He's shrugging his shoulder. He was too busy covering Emirates to go out and actually see these.

Jens Flottau:

No, no.

Guy Norris:

Christine might've been out there, I don't know.

Jens Flottau:

No, but in my defense, the apron was so full of aircraft this year.

Guy Norris:

It was. It was amazing.

Jens Flottau:

I've never seen an apron at a Dubai Airshow that full. The A350-1000, the 787, the 777-9, an A380, 777-300ER from Emirates, Air Arabia, you name them. And that's just the local airlines plus everyone else. So it was, and there were also lots of attendees. I thought it was a really, really busy show. I didn't expect it'd really be that busy, to be honest.

Christine Boynton:

Yeah, it was certainly a sight to see. And I have to say, this is only the second time I've been at the Dubai Airshow, and two of the aircraft I think I was most excited to see, or most intrigued to see, was Beond Airlines, which is a premium leisure traveler. They're based in the Maldives. And what they've done is they've taken an A319 and outfitted it in all business class, which is something I've never seen. And actually they launch their first passenger flight tomorrow. The other one was the 777-9, which I hadn't had a chance to see yet. Guy and I went and spoke to the test pilots and actually Guy did a couple of videos speaking with them. So those are on aviationweek.com. But they have the water tanks on board so that they can do their in-flight testing. And it was just great to be able to walk around, ask all the questions, and see what that aircraft is looking like. So, that's been a lot of fun.

Guy Norris:

Right. I agree. In fact, it was so busy and such a crowded ramp that we heard rumors that an ARJ21 had made it all the way here from China, possibly in support of the Chinese aerobatic team, the August 1st team that were flying at the show. But we don't know, of course. But it was so crowded out there, we couldn't find it.

Jens Flottau:

Yeah. And if it was here, I believe it was here, or it still is here. It was parked around the corner and a part of the airplane that wasn't accessible for us and for anybody else. So we couldn't really see it, unfortunately.

Christine Boynton:

Well, on that note, we are out of time for this episode, and that's a wrap for this week's Check 6 Podcast. And to our listeners, if you want to read the coverage from Jens and Guy, please download our airshow app aviationweek.com/app. That's aviationweek.com/app to see all of their stories from here in almost real time. Thanks for your time, listeners, and have a wonderful week.