Retirements of mainline commercial air transport continue to lag as airlines keep older, cheap airframes on hand while wobbly trends such as traffic recovery and new aircraft delivery schedules stabilize, Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery data suggests.
Commercial transport retirements totaled 182 through July, Fleet Discovery data show. Pulling out regional aircraft, the figure drops to 157.
The figures suggest an historically low retirement rate will continue. In 2021, 445 aircraft were retired, including just 341 mainline aircraft—lows not seen in 15 years.
“We believe that retirements are likely to remain below expectations,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert wrote in a recent research note. “Supply chain disruptions imply that airlines will be cautious with inventory levels, and the uneven pace of the recovery implies that airlines are not always sure which aircraft will come back to service, and when.” Herbert pointed to the surprising reactivation of some Airbus A380s as an example.
Official annual retirement figures are often revised upward as information about stored aircraft comes in. As the pandemic-induced air travel slump gripped the globe in 2020, many saw the widespread grounding and long-term storage of aircraft as a precursor to a wave of retirements. But several factors have combined to reduce the potential wave to a ripple. Among them are ongoing new aircraft production and development issues.
Both Airbus and Boeing are behind on narrowbody deliveries, for various reasons. Boeing’s 787 production issues meant it delivered practically no aircraft of the type for nearly two years. Delays in Boeing’s 777-9 certification program mean the new, high-capacity widebody won’t see revenue service until at least 2025—several years later than originally planned.
The cumulative effect on fleet plans means carriers must have alternatives ready if demand recovers enough to warrant adding flights. In some markets, such as the U.S., demand is already pushing airlines’ resources, meaning current delivery delays are forcing changes.
While these issues will not last forever, the headwinds are likely strong enough to keep retirements down for the next several years. Aviation Week projects annual mainline retirements will stay below 700 airframes until 2025.
“The consensus industry view now is that we will not see a near-term increase, or surge, in aircraft retirements,” Herbert wrote. “This is incrementally positive for the commercial [aftermarket], and it reflects the delivery delays for new aircraft as well as the inconsistent travel recovery.”
While keeping older airframes in service helps boost aftermarket demand, it also presents some challenges. One lingering issue from a lack of retirements is a corresponding shortage of used serviceable material.
“The lack of a material increase in retirements continues to create supply constraints on the availability of used serviceable material,” Herbert wrote. “Spare parts availability and lead times now appear to be a greater risk to the 2023 [aftermarket] growth, but this is one of the most important watch items” for the rest of this year, he added.
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