Two MiG-31Ks fly over the MAKS air show carrying Khinzal air-launched ballistic missiles.
As a 10-month-long barrage of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure by Russian missiles and drones continues, a new Ukrainian military intelligence assessment claims that Russian companies are building strike missiles at a monthly clip of more than 100, and adjusting tactics to overcome defenses.
A transcript of remarks by Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, makes it clear that officials in Kyiv are bracing for a prolonged, long-range missile and drone assault from Russia, although in smaller batches due to stockpile shortages.
“Such massive strikes as happened last October, November, December, when they launched 70-100 rockets at a time—most likely, there will be no more,” Skibitskyi told the RBK-Ukraine news service. “The Russians realize that they may not achieve their goal, but instead will only exhaust their reserves, as they did last year.”
Ukraine’s military intelligence arm, also known as the GUR, believes Russia has about 585 ballistic and cruise missiles with warheads still on hand, including about 270 9K720 Iskander missiles, about 140 3M-14 Kaliber cruise missiles and a total of about Kh-101, Kh-555 and Kh-55 cruise missiles. The tally also includes an estimated stockpile of 75 9-S-7760 Khinzal air-launched ballistic missiles, Skibitskyi said.
Meanwhile, the Russians have a plan to produce a maximum of 118 missiles of all types each month. For August, the Russian production plan, which the GUR claims to have obtained, calls for delivering 42 new Iskander missiles, 40 Kh-101s, 20 Kalibrs, a maximum of 10 Kh-32s and more than six Khinzals.
Russian companies are now performing final assembly of Geran-2 one-way attack munitions, which rare Russia’s version of the Iranian Shahed 136 drone, Skibitskyi said. Russian components are now found in Geran-2s that land in Ukraine, he added.
As Ukraine braces for a new missile barrage on energy infrastructure leading into winter, military officials in Kyiv are wary of improving Russian tactics.
The Russians are alternating different classes of missiles with each wave attack, he said. More attention is being paid to planning the route for the strikes to avoid defenses. And the Russians are acting on targeting information faster than in the past, he said.
“The enemy is now studying our energy facilities, looking for their vulnerable places and the location of our air defense systems,” Skibitskyi said. “The Russians will analyze all this in order to choose the optimal routes for launches.”
