Hong Kong unrest a bad sign for peace in the Taiwan Strait

Beijing’s increasingly heavy-handed treatment of Hong Kong, resulting in current street protests, raises the risk of China eventually trying to seize Taiwan by force, though the probability may not have changed much.

The treatment of Hong Kong under the policy of one country and two systems has been unofficially offered as a reassurance to Taiwan that it would keep its freedoms if it returned to China. Hong Kong is supposed to run its local affairs, with the rule of law, free speech and so on, while the central government in Beijing, satisfied that it has sovereignty, attends to defense and foreign affairs.

But Beijing is increasingly seeking to influence Hong Kong, the most notable intrusion being its attempt in 2012 to introduce brainwashing classes into the education system. The dissatisfaction of many Hongkongers with Beijing’s intrusions is a factor in the protests that most media have not picked up on. It is not just about the key issue of a broken promise to allow democratic elections in Hong Kong; the demonstrations would be smaller if people were not so anxious about the direction of a city government manipulated by the Communist Party.

The Taiwanese notice all this, and they cannot be reassured. They are therefore less likely to agree at any foreseeable time to return to return to China, and China is therefore more likely to decide that the only way it will ever get the island back is by force.

The change in likelihood may be small, however, because already there is barely any keenness in Taiwan for returning to China. Indeed, the prospects of luring Taiwan may seem so stubbornly low to the Communist Party leaders that they have decided they have nothing to lose by getting tough with Hong Kong.