The U.S government is looking at how it could backfill the fighter fleet of Poland should that nation donate its aircraft to Ukraine to help that nation fight off Russia, though it is not clear that Poland wants to make that decision.
Following a virtual meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. lawmakers over the weekend, U.S. officials announced they were working with Poland to backfill their military with American F-16s if Poland donated MiG-29s to Ukraine.
A senior defense official told reporters March 7 that the Biden administration is discussing what options it would have to send Lockheed Martin F-16s to Poland, but such a process would take time.
“We’ve made no decisions and therefore it’s putting the cart before the horse to get ahead in terms of if something like that were to happen, how it would be sourced,” the official said. “The administration is considering those kinds of potentials.”
Poland operates 48 Block 52 F-16C/Ds, along with 23 MiG-29s. The Polish Air Force also flies 18 Su-22s and has ordered 32 F-35s. It isn’t clear where replacement F-16s could come from—if they would need to be regenerated from the U.S. Air Force “boneyard” at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona, or from units that are set to retire their jets.
Kirby said these decisions would be based on how many aircraft Poland would need and how long they would need them, and a permanent sale would “take some time.”
It also is not clear that Poland would want to send its MiG-29s to Ukraine. On March 6, the Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland tweeted that it won’t send its fighter jets to Ukraine, and Polish President Andrzej Duda also said last week that his country would not supply aircraft to Ukraine.
Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova, in a March 7 letter to Congress, called on American lawmakers to “take all steps possible with the administration to immediately provide Ukraine with aircraft and air defense systems,” Politico reported.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.Y.), in a March 7 letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged the administration to work as quickly as possible to finalize its dialogue with Poland and also to persuade other NATO nations with Soviet-era jets to send their aircraft to Ukraine.
“I understand this is not an easy decision for these countries to make,” Menendez wrote. “Asking them to provide their own aircraft, especially as Russia’s military aggression edges closer to their own borders, would be unthinkable except in the direst circumstances. Unfortunately, that is the situation the world faces. Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures and sacrifices.”
The U.S. defense official pointed out that Ukraine still does have much of its aircraft available, and Russia still has not established air superiority over the country. The airspace is “dynamic,” with control shifting daily.
As of March 7, Russia has fired more than 625 missiles into Ukraine as part of the invasion and now President Vladimir Putin has moved almost 100% of the prestaged forces into the country. The invasion has stalled near many cities, and the U.S. has seen a shift to using more long-range fires such as artillery and rockets to make up for the lack of ground movement and air superiority.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a briefing that it appears that not every Russian ground operation is fully supported by Russian aircraft.
“It’s not clear to us how significant their air operations are being in helping alleviate the lack of progress that they have on the ground, because they don’t seem to be fully coordinated between air and ground elements,” Kirby said.
Despite several reports of downed Russian aircraft, the U.S. assesses that Putin still has the “vast majority” of aircraft available, though there have been sustainment and maintenance issues, the official said. There’s no indication that more aircraft will be flowing in from elsewhere in Russia.
The U.S. and NATO are flowing more aircraft to the region to help secure NATO airspace. On March 7, the Pentagon announced that Austin ordered KC-135s and airmen from Fairchild Air Force Base, Washington, to deploy to Souda Bay, Greece, to provide fuel for aircraft flying air patrols over NATO’s eastern front. Additionally, two air support operations centers will stand up in Romania and Poland.
The United Kingdom Royal Air Force announced it has deployed F-35s from RAF Marham to Amari Air Base, Estonia.
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The USAF currently operates Fifty-two F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft (the same model that is flown by the Polish Air Force). If the desire to supply Ukraine with Mig-29s is great enough the US would simply say, "We will give you an F-16 for each Mig you hand over to Ukraine. The aircraft can be delivered in four days." Contrary to what the pentagon may be saying, the permanent transfer of F-16s to Poland does not necessarily have to "take some time."
Whether the Polish government thinks that this would be in their national interest is an entirely separate question.
Before deploying to the Falklands British Harrier fighter pilots practiced air-to air combat skills against French Mirage fighter pilots.
The blue print is out there to get fighters to Ukraine. A plan similar to what President Roosevelt did to supply fighters to China or the old Israeli movie company plan. Have a private company buy the mig 29 and supply them to Ukraine and the background the us and NATO could do make goods….
The blue print is out there to get fighters to Ukraine. A plan similar to what President Roosevelt did to supply fighters to China or the old Israeli movie company plan. Have a private company buy the mig 29 and supply them to Ukraine and the background the us and NATO could do make goods….