The global civil aircraft fleet should increase 3.9% over the next 10 years to 32,500 aircraft, and the value of the aftermarket supporting that fleet likely will grow at a 3.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to $69 billion by 2022, according to an Aviation Week forecast. While the growth percentages look small and could indicate a constrained airline capacity increase for the next few years, while keeping maintenance costs in check, a look at the underlying numbers make this a much more dynamic story.
In September 1996, Embraer announced the arrival of its regional jet family in North America when Continental Express ordered 200 ERJ 145s. Even though only 25 of the commitments were firm, the message was clear: Embraer's 50-seat market entry was going to be a major player in the world's biggest aviation market. Recently, a few ERJ 145s were involved in a very different kind of transaction that delivered an equally emphatic, but different message.
An American Airlines-US Airways merger offers the combined carrier clear opportunities to leverage existing assets as part of a long-term MRO strategy that mixes in-house and outsourced work. Just how much work will stay in the new American's hangars is anyone's guess, however, particularly considering the apparent clash of philosophies.
New-generation turbine engines are being designed to run hotter for better fuel efficiency and lower emissions. This requires a second generation of thermal barrier coating (TBC) technologies that offer greater protection for costly engine components such as the high-pressure turbine blades and vanes. “The new generation of ceramic TBCs, which are referred to as 'Low K TBC,' will provide lower conductivity, resulting in greater insulative conductivity,” says Ravi Shankar, director of coating and process technologies for Chromalloy.
As the average age of the global commercial fleet continues to get younger, is the corresponding aftermarket becoming more mature? In the last three years, the average aircraft age has decreased to 11.9 from 12.2 years, according to Aviation Week data. While that is not a precipitous drop, it is significant in that it corresponds to younger aircraft and engines being torn apart because their values are higher individually. (Don't miss the AW&ST package on life cycles in this issue.)
Line maintenance and ground support equipment appear to be two of the industry sectors with an outsourcing growth trend, from specialized tools to inflight entertainment systems (IFE). While line maintenance was once focused purely on safety, it now encompasses inflight entertainment, with special cabin teams tasked with ensuring airlines' marketing promises and customers' expectations are met.
1. House of Hose Manufacturer: Air-Pro Specifications: Miami-based Air Pro's specialties include aircraft and engine hoses as well as interiors expendables. It offers customized hose kits for scheduled maintenance support and to store onboard for emergencies. Air-Pro is a distributor/manufacturer for Smiths Tubular Systems and Hydrasearch. www.air-pro.com Link 606 2. Just Expendables Manufacturer: Aircraft Inventory & Management Services
1. Air Data Test Set On Wheels Manufacturer: DAC International Applications: Reduced vertical separation minimum-compliant three- or four-channel air data test set with multiport isolation capabilities as designed to test static, pitot and angle-of-attack functions.
Washington Contractor Conundrum Everything old is new again, though sometimes going back to the future requires a mandate. The FAA is hard at work on a rule aimed at making contract maintenance easier to perform and oversee. At the draft rule's core are two requirements—that airlines keep lists of all their third-party maintenance providers, and that the providers follow instructions provided to them by the carrier—including everything that has been on the books for four-plus decades.
Forty-three years after entering revenue service, the Pratt & Whitney JT9D series continues to power a cross section of operators sprinkled around the globe. While still diverse, the cross section is much thinner than in years past, however, with many operators flying just a handful of engines. It's a sign of the steady and inevitable decline facing the venerable series.
Asia, the Middle East and North America are emerging as the most attractive likely markets during the next three years for Boeing 777 widebody heavy maintenance visits and C checks, underscoring the potential for a capacity crunch heading the industry's way.
