Millions of years ago when the Earth was warmer, alligators and crocodiles lived in Greenland.
Should the Earth continue on its expected warming path, alligators could return to the Arctic and whether the Earth could feed its people would be in question, Anthony Patt, professor of climate policy at ETH Zurich in Switzerland, said during a European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE) Connect webinar.
But achieving net zero emissions by 2050, as promised in the Paris agreement, will avoid that scenario and keep the planet and its people healthy, Patt says.
A variety of options will help the Earth get there, he said, including one that directly captures carbon dioxide emitted by aircraft from the air.
Aviation contributes a portion of the world’s emissions and “we need to figure out how to decarbonize it,” he says.
The aircraft themselves are improving and becoming more efficient, and carbon offset programs are in place to counter the emissions through the planting of trees and the use of biogenic fuels. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can fill the gap, and electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft technology is moving forward, although it is not there for long-haul flights, Patt says.
Another option is to continue to burn fossil fuel but to use an initiative that captures the carbon dioxide out of the air, Patt says. It can then be stored underground, where it mineralizes and turns into rock within a few months. A CarbFix project in Iceland is underway. Another and better option is to use the direct capture of CO2 to synthesize it into the production of synthetic fuels, he says.
A challenge will be the costs, which will come down over time but are still expected to be higher than those of today, Patt says.
It will take everyone working together to solve the issue, and awareness and education are key.
Jet Aviation Business Jets is offering customers sustainable aviation fuels on an ongoing basis at Van Nuys Airport in California, with plans to offer it at two locations in the Netherlands soon, Claudio Peer, vice president of sales for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Asia, said during the panel discussion.
“Many of our customers are very interested,” Peer says, “but they have many questions and concerns. That is why it is important to have dialogue within the industry to raise awareness and educate customers.”
The core challenge to eliminating fossil fuel emissions across every sector is the volume of investment and creation of a policy environment in which investors can count on secure profit margins, Patt says. Profits do not need to be large, but they need to be there to lower risk.
Will we get to net zero emissions by 2050?
Five years ago, Patt says, he would have said no. But in the past five years, there has been technology innovations, voluntary actions by the airlines and the first steps to commercialize SAF. The majority of the countries have net zero targets in place. He believes that many parts of the world will achieve zero net emissions, but is less confident it will be achieved on a global scale.
“Ask me again in five years,” he says. “My hope is that enough things will change by then that it will be looking really good for the whole world.”
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