Few times in aerospace history can have been as difficult for forecasters as recent months. Things are changing, that is certain, but there are so many conflicting signs that the direction of the industry is almost impossible to project. Debt crises, oil prices, climate change, competition for resources and many other factors inject unprecedented unpredictability into the equation.

Driven by growth in passenger and cargo traffic, the global airline industry returned to profitability in 2010 after two years of financial losses. As a direct result, large turbine engine manufacturers have seen rebounding sales and full order books for new and existing engines.

With crude oil beginning the year above $110 a barrel, and little prospect of aviation fuel prices coming down anytime soon, the imperative to find alternative sources to ensure price competition and supply security remains strong. But as 2012 progresses, industry is looking to governments to capitalize on the rapid technical progress made in approving bio-derived jet fuels by providing the funding support necessary to scale production up to commercial quantities and bring prices down to competitive levels.

The air cargo market appeared to be on the way to sustained growth early in 2011, but in May it started shrinking. As a result, full-year results should show a slight decline versus the 2010 level. This is not a good start for 2012, and indicates that businesses' confidence in the economy is weak.

The U.S. Air Force's tanker contract has been awarded, Airbus and Boeing have moved to upgrade the A320 and 737, and NASA's space shuttle has flown its last mission. It's time to move on to 2012 and the next round of big developments in the aerospace and defense industry. Here are 12 to keep an eye on.

When TUI Travel, the European launch customer for Boeing's 787, finally takes delivery of its first aircraft, the team at Monarch Aircraft Engineering should be ready to provide maintenance support through the Goldcare option. The technical arm of London Luton-based Monarch Airlines, is currently Boeing's only airframe maintenance partner for the Goldcare program. Despite Monarch canceling its own order for six 787s in September of last year, Boeing has confirmed that Monarch will remain a Goldcare partner.

There are no votes to be won for adding airport capacity in London, so there is little political interest in tackling one of the most contentious air transport policy issues in the U.K. But policy makers are accepting, albeit somewhat grudgingly, that simply maintaining the status quo is not tenable.

For EADS investors, this point been has a long time coming: Airbus's financial performance is set to ramp up. Now the question is whether conditions beyond its control will allow the aircraft maker to follow through. With Airbus heading into new record output territory, production is due to hit 570 aircraft this year, including, for the first time, 30 A380s. Louis Gallois, CEO of Airbus parent EADS, promises the financial performance will take off, too.