Aviation stakeholders should contemplate a slower-growth future--including lower maintenance expenditures.

Airbus can barely keep up with demand. A combination of high fuel prices and low interest rates has helped boost the jetliner market to record levels, with more growth ahead. But there is one exception to this happy situation: the A380. It is time to face some tough facts about the program.

Has as a new jetliner ever been launched as reluctantly as the 777X? Boeing usually prefers to follow its competitors in new product development, waiting until it can create a “killer” for a given segment. The 777X, like the original 777, looks set to enter service several years after the competition, in this case the A350-1000. But while the 777 became a category killer, this time the late-adapter approach may have significant disadvantages.

In 2012, deliveries of large commercial jets manufactured by Airbus and Boeing exceeded $88 billion in value, at estimated prices, up 57% since 2008. During that same four-year period, the global economy had its worst years since World War II. The macroeconomic recovery has been anemic, and demand for air travel only marginally better. While airline revenue passenger kilometers grew 6.9% in 2010 following a 3.5% decline in 2009, growth eased to just 5.3% in 2011.

The Auto-GCAS’s capabilities can best be appreciated firsthand. During a 1-hr. 20-min. flight on the Air Force Research Laboratory/NASA F-16 testbed, this Aviation Week editor observed a variety of scenarios, many flown at extremely low altitudes and high speed, designed to show how the automatic ground collision avoidance system (Auto-GCAS) will prevent mishaps while allowing the full range of tactical flying without triggering nuisance fly-ups.

The super-heavy Antonov An-225 ``Mriya'' transport, which has been converted for use as a freighter, completed the first of 10 test flights on May 7 from an airfield near Kiev, Ukraine. It is scheduled to appear at Le Bourget next month for this year's Paris air show. Antonov paid $20 million to convert the aircraft, which was originally designed to transport the Soviet Buran space shuttle. The upgrade included the addition of modern navigation and communication avionics, a collision avoidance system and changes to reduce the aircraft's noise signature.