The commercial jet transport market has returned to prosperity. Orders are up, airlines are making money, and only about 200 used planes are on the market, down from 1,000 a few years ago. Two questions remain: is this recovery sustainable, and does a rising tide lift all boats?

Few segments of the military aircraft market are growth areas today. Yet with shrinking force structures in the U.S., Europe and Russia, the need to rapidly transport available units remains as great as ever. European militaries, facing few threats in Europe, must look elsewhere for a raison d'etre. Where militaries are growing or maintaining their size (Asia), transports are obsolete and need replacing.

The military helicopter market is shrinking and will continue to shrink. The civil market is recovering from a devastating recession, but shows few signs of real growth. The big issue in this difficult market is rationalization. There are too many players to survive in a world of conglomerations and savage defense cuts. The problem will be acute in the U.S. as military programs wind down. STUBBORNLY INDEPENDENT COMPANIES