Efforts by new competitors to enter the global jet commercial aircraft market seem certain to eventually spark trade friction, although at this stage the trouble is only brewing. It may not boil over for another 10 years or so. China and Russia are building large regional jets, Japan could launch a similar aircraft within weeks, and South Korean industry is pushing its government to support yet another. All those aircraft will or would compete against Embraer and Bombardier products, and all can be assumed to need government support.

If there is one aircraft market that is sure to balloon in the coming 15 years, it’s Chinese general aviation. An official study predicts the country’s fleet of general aviation aircraft will grow by the early 2020s to almost 10,000, a level 14 times the numbers employed at the end of 2006. We can take these figures seriously because there is every sign that the sector will soon be rid of its greatest encumbrance: highly restrictive military control of airspace.

Asian airlines are deftly handling the environmental debate, taking advantage of the warning signs that came out of Europe a year ago to introduce timely and substantial measures to cut pollution and keep public opinion on their side. While some European carriers were caught flat-footed by the sudden explosion of the environmental debate in that region about a year ago, and found themselves scrambling to avoid punitive government policies, the Asian airline industry hasn’t suffered an outbreak of anti-aviation hysteria.