Chinese leasing companies are close to venturing into speculative aircraft orders as the next stage in their development. Lessors are already making inquiries with manufacturers but, as mostly new companies still feeling their way, they are reluctant to commit to the distant delivery dates that are available. The global aviation industry is already getting used to names such as ICBC Leasing, CDB Leasing, Bank of Communications Leasing and Dragon Aviation Leasing.

Local government enthusiasm for economic development will help propel Chinese general aviation development over the coming decade, perhaps accelerating the opening up of low-altitude airspace that is creating the industry’s opportunity.

The threat to Chinese airlines from fast trains will become clearer and maybe uglier this year, as the railways ministry opens thousands of kilometers of high-speed track. New lines will include one between Beijing and Shanghai that will challenge China’s premier air route with trains running at up to 380 kph (236 mph) and connecting the two cities in just under 4 hr. According to several studies, the trains can expect to take at least 45% of the business.