Adrian is Auckland bureau chief for Aviation Week, based in New Zealand. He covers commercial aviation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Adrian was previously based in Aviation Week’s Washington office for nine years, writing for a range of the group’s publications and covering many aspects of the commercial aviation industry. He has won Australasian and international awards for his aviation writing.
Prior to joining Aviation Week in 2002, Adrian covered aviation industry and policy issues for two other publishing companies in Washington. He has also worked for newspapers in Texas and New Zealand, covering a wide range of topics. Adrian graduated from Auckland University with a degree in history and English in 1992.
American is predicting that it will see solid unit revenue gains in the first quarter, but analysts are generally anticipating a net loss in the first quarter and a tough second quarter as well. Mainline unit revenues will increase by 6.9%, with consolidated unit revenue up 7.9%, the airline reported in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The cargo and other revenue categories will “increase modestly.” The mainline unit revenue gain was greater than the 4.5% increase recorded for the same period last year.
U.S. airline revenue growth slowed more sharply than usual in February, which could be a trend to watch in regard to demand, according to one analyst. Mainline revenue for seven major carriers dropped 7.1% from January to February, according to Air Transport Association data quoted by JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker. While a drop between these two months is expected, Baker believes this year’s drop was much larger than in recent years — particularly when adjusting for the extra day in February 2008 due to the leap year.
Major network airlines, such as American, are not as much at risk of a Chapter 11 filing as some in financial markets assume, say airline executives and leading analysts. Recent market chatter has implied a high risk of bankruptcies for major network carriers in the next few years. However, JP Morgan analysts doubt that bankruptcies are forthcoming among the majors. “With little to be gained by filing for bankruptcy for the majors, we don’t expect a rush to the courthouse but rather a rush to cut capacity,” said a recent JP Morgan report.
