Adrian is Auckland bureau chief for Aviation Week, based in New Zealand. He covers commercial aviation in the Asia-Pacific region.
Adrian was previously based in Aviation Week’s Washington office for nine years, writing for a range of the group’s publications and covering many aspects of the commercial aviation industry. He has won Australasian and international awards for his aviation writing.
Prior to joining Aviation Week in 2002, Adrian covered aviation industry and policy issues for two other publishing companies in Washington. He has also worked for newspapers in Texas and New Zealand, covering a wide range of topics. Adrian graduated from Auckland University with a degree in history and English in 1992.
Adrian Schofield (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia), Jens Flottau (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)
While the steep decline in global travel demand may finally be leveling out, the airline industry’s future looks cloudier than ever. Hopes for a steady recovery are being dashed by the prospect of prolonged yield weakness and the new threat of rising oil prices. And even as airlines are scrambling to defer aircraft orders—particularly in Asia, where the pain is greatest—many still worry that surplus capacity could stifle long-term growth.
American plans to shave another point from its planned capacity cut this year, but has again accelerated its delivery of new aircraft. Mainline capacity will now be down 7.5% year-on-year in 2009, compared to the previously announced 6.5% cut. The reductions will take place in the fall. For the second half of the year, mainline domestic capacity will be down 7.5% and international capacity 5.5%.
Qantas estimates its planned order deferrals will trim its capital expenditure by about A$1 billion (US$803 million) during this year and 2010, says airline CEO Alan Joyce. The carrier already has agreements to postpone four Airbus A380 deliveries by 12 months, and it will also delay 12 Boeing 737 orders. The A$1 billion savings estimate does not include the 787 delivery deferrals that Qantas is currently attempting to negotiate with Boeing. The airline has 65 of these on order.
