IATA Maps Out Detailed ‘Bottom-Up’ Strategy For Aviation To Achieve Net Zero

ISTANBUL—The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has mapped out a detailed analysis of how the aviation industry can reach net zero by 2050, in the form of roadmaps highlighting the technology, policy, finance, operational and infrastructure steps needed to achieve the industry-wide goal.

IATA first expressed the 2050 net-zero target at its annual general meeting (AGM) in 2021, followed by ICAO’s adoption of its long-term aspirational goal. It says achieving net zero by 2050 will cost a cumulative $5 trillion.

“We’ve been working with a whole myriad of stakeholders across the aviation value chain, trying to flesh out how best we can get to net zero in 2050,” Hemant Mistry, IATA’s director for energy transition, told a briefing at the association’s AGM in Istanbul on June 5.

“This is the first time in the aviation industry that we have a bottom-up assessment of net zero,” Mistry added, noting the analysis builds up a more detailed picture of the actions needed by different stakeholders, compared to other, top-down analyses.

The roadmaps to net zero unveiled by IATA address three fundamental levers: reducing the amount of energy needed to fly; changing the fuel used to fly; and recapturing carbon dioxide that is still emitted.

Those three levers cover five different areas: aircraft technology, energy infrastructure, operations, finance, and policy.

The aircraft technology area covers the development of more efficient aircraft and engines, including the steps needed to enable aircraft powered by 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrogen or batteries. It also includes new engines, aerodynamics, aircraft structures and flight systems.

Under the heading of energy and new fuels infrastructure, IATA focuses on the fuels and new energy carrier infrastructure upstream from airports—which will be needed to facilitate the use of aircraft powered by SAF or hydrogen.

Operations covers opportunities for reducing emissions and boosting energy efficiency by improving the way existing aircraft are operated. That includes automation, big data management and the integration of new technologies for optimizing air traffic management and enhancing the overall efficiency of the air transportation system.

Under the heading of policy, the association highlights the need for globally aligned strategic policies to provide incentives and support for the net-zero transition. Furthermore, the finance part of the strategy covers how the cumulative $5 trillion which will be needed to achieve net zero by 2050 will be financed.

“Industry and [United Nations] member countries are uniquely united in this very strong commitment to engineer the transition to sustainable aviation by 2050. That’s absolutely fabulous—now we just have to do it,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s chief economist and senior vice president for sustainability, during the same briefing.

“It’s extremely important to point out that all of these markets for these solutions are virtually non-existent today,” she added, citing the example of low current volumes of SAF production.

SAF is expected to deliver about 62% of the carbon mitigation needed to achieve net zero by 2050.

“Market infrastructures and policy around encouraging the birth of these is really what needs to happen first—as the first action shot on the journey towards net zero. This is what has to happen from 2023 to unblock institutional barriers that stand in the way of new solutions being approved and scaled up for commercialization,” Owens Thomsen said.

“I must emphasize that the roadmaps are not just for airlines. Governments, suppliers and financiers cannot be spectators in aviation’s decarbonization journey,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “They have skin in the game. The roadmaps are a call to action for all aviation’s stakeholders to deliver the tools needed to make this fundamental transformation of aviation a success with policies and products fit for a net-zero world.”

The draft roadmaps took into account a peer-to-peer review, complemented by a modeling tool provided by the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London to calculate emission reductions for each technology.