ROUTES TRIVIA: What are the Fastest Growing Domestic and International Airports in China?

The Asia-Pacific region is a diverse mix of countries, people and aviation requirements, and over the next 20 years will be responsible for more growth and aircraft deliveries than any other region, according to the world’s leading aircraft manufacturers. This should not be a surprise, after all it is home to more than 60 per cent of the world’s population.

The need to travel to, from and within Asia is by no means a modern phenomenon; people from Europe have explored and traded with the region as long ago as 500 BC. Today, people still want and need to travel to the region, and flying makes it much more straight forward.

In its Global Market Forecast 2014-2033, Airbus says over half of the new routes it forecasts to be launched globally over the next 20 years, will connect with Asia-Pacific. The majority of these new routes will be to other regions, according to the manufacturer, with significant opportunities for greater connectivity with more mature markets.

The network will also develop within Asia-Pacific itself, with 12 per cent of global new routes in this category, According to the report. “These will be driven through increased liberalisation including more opportunity for the LCC business model to spread, particularly northwards within the region,” says Airbus.

Interestingly data shows that both the seats and flights offered by the LCCs across this region have increased dramatically since 2000. Additionally, the fact that the seats offered has out-paced the growth in flights means that the average aircraft capacity utilised has grown more than 50 per cent over that period. This trend is expected to continue as geography, demographics and congestion all play their role and meaning that aircraft selection, in terms of seating capacity, may not necessarily follow the trends of LCCs in other regions.

Southeast Asia has established itself as one of the world’s fastest growing aviation markets and there is huge potential for this growth to continue in the foreseeable future thanks to countries’ robust economies and expanding middle classes. This region has already seen the benefits of the low-cost airline revolution, opening the market up to new air travellers and enhancing traveller mobility.

However, local skies have been impacted over the past year by overcapacity and political instability. A slowing of capacity growth among the region’s airlines has helped overcome this issue in the latter stages of 2014 and while demand continues to grow, recent consolidation should sustain development opportunities. The current low price of fuel will also entice the region’s airlines to further their expansion.

The Asia-Pacific region will lead world economic growth, both in real GDP with an average of 4.6 per cent per year and in trade with an average of 5.7 per cent per year according to forecasts. Within the region there is no doubt that China will continue to be the key market.

In the coming years it is set to become the world’s largest economy, and will be home to the World’s largest domestic aviation market. By 2033, it will be more than 60 per cent larger in terms of passengers, than today’s largest market in the US, even by conservative estimates.

Domestic air travel is very important for China’s aviation development with approximately 50 per cent of all Chinese traffic flown within the country. So far, much of this traffic has been focused among the emerging new cities in the east, and even though this is expected to remain true for the foreseeable future further economic development in western and central China means that traffic is slowly but surely developing to the west and north.

In its Current Market Outlook 2014-2033, Boeing projects that the current growth trend in China will continue over the next 20 years, with passenger traffic increasing 6.9 per cent and air cargo traffic increasing 6.7 per cent annually. Our own analysis of domestic air capacity in China shows a 7.8 per cent rise in 2014 versus 2013.

The majority of the growth, approximately 65 per cent, will be within China, according to the manufacturer.About 16 per cent of the growth will be international traffic to destinations within the Asia Pacific region, according to the analysis, while the remaining 19 per cent will be long-haul international traffic. To support this growth in demand, China will need 6,020 new aircraft over the next 200 years, valued at $870 billion at list prices, says Boeing.

With nearly 80 per cent of the Chinese population and economy within a range circle of about 2,000 km across Central and Eastern regions, congestion will remain a major talking point in China and an issue that will not be easily resolved. It is clear that new LCC entrants in China and growing secondary cities mean point-to-point services will help alleviate congestion at major hubs, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, while moves to larger capacity airliners, even widebodied equipment on domestic sectors will support growing demand.

Airbus and Boeing both agree that new-technology widebody aircraft, such as the A350, B787 and 777 will help Chinese airlines expand their global networks and compete more effectively with international carriers.

Over the past two years Chinese airlines opened a number of new long-haul markets. Over the next 20 years, this expansion is expected to continue as traffic to Europe grows 6.1 per cent; to North America, 6.3 per cent; to Oceania, 6.6 per cent; and to Africa, 7.4 per cent, according to Boeing data China will need 1,480 new widebody airplanes to support this market growth, adds the manufacturer.

BUT, what were China’s fastest growing airports in the domestic and international markets in 2014 based on departure capacity versus 2013?

Let us know your thoughts! VOTE in the adjacent POLLS and SHARE YOUR VIEWS in the comment section!

We will close the poll for the question on March 13, 2015 just ahead of this year’s Routes Asia forum in the Chinese city of Kunming and will reveal how Routesonline readers voted and actual capacity data based on an extract from OAG Schedules Analyser on February 12, 2015.