The growing worldwide demand for commercial air transportation will continue to drive the airline industry toward more efficient and operationally-effective aircraft, with large widebodies representing the majority in terms of sales value, the world’s two leading aircraft manufacturers - Airbus and Boeing - agree. But, a topic sure to be discussed at Routes Americas this year is what part will the Americas region play in the coming 20 years?
In its latest Global Market Forecast that was released in September last year, Airbus predicted in the next 20 years (2013-2032), air traffic will grow at 4.7 per cent annually requiring over 29,220 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly US$4.4 trillion. Some 28,350 of these are passenger aircraft valued at US$4.1 trillion. Of these, some 10,400 will replace existing aircraft with more efficient ones. With today’s fleet of 17,740 aircraft, it means that by 2032, the worldwide fleet will double to nearly 36,560 aircraft.
Airbus says that emerging markets will drive much of this growth with the Asia Pacific region dominating, but included Brazil as a spotlight market in the Americas. According to the manufacturer, the Brazilian air travel market will need 1,324 aircraft by 2032 to address the country’s rising international and domestic air travel requirements. The 896 single-aisle, 353 twin-aisle and 75 very large aircraft (VLA) are forecast to help meet the rising demand from domestic and foreign carriers in Brazil almost tripling the in-service fleet from today’s 480 to more than 1,320 aircraft by 2032.
With a GDP forecast to grow at four per cent annually, above the world average of 3.1 per cent, socioeconomic trends suggest Brazil’s economy will more than double over the next 20 years. Brazil’s air traffic is expected to follow suit, growing at an annual rate of 6.8 percent by 2032, far exceeding the world average of 4.7 percent, according to the manufacturer.
Driven by a growing middle class, increased consumer spending as well as a booming tourism sector, Brazil currently represents 35 per cent of all Latin America’s air traffic, making it the region’s largest and amongst the fastest growing markets, having more than doubled since 2000. Since then, international traffic alone has increased at an impressive 87 per cent.
More than 40 per cent of South America’s long-haul traffic arrives through three Brazilian airports, including Guarulhos International Airport in Sao Paulo which is the number one international airport for long-haul traffic in Latin America. Airbus predicts that in the coming years, very large aircraft (VLA) such as the A380, would be ideal aircraft for these cities with their high density traffic, including Rio de Janeiro. VLAs can carry more passengers with fewer flights, while meeting the international air traffic requirements needed to serve long-haul flights to Europe and North America.
“With nearly half of the region’s long-haul traffic going through Brazil, the A380 could alleviate traffic congestion at busy airports, such as Guarulhos , which represents 25 per cent of total international traffic in Latin America,” said John Leahy, chief operating officer, customers, Airbus. “The A380 would also support the huge tourism flows expected around the upcoming football World Cup and the Olympic Games.”
The country’s domestic air traffic market has grown an impressive 2.4 times since 2000, consolidating Brazil’s position as the fourth largest domestic market in the world by 2032, only surpassed by China, the United States and India.
“The A350 XWB and A320neo deliveries starting from the second half of 2014 and 2015, respectively could not come soon enough, with single and twin-aisle aircraft making up the vast majority of aviation demand in Brazil,” added Leahy. “These ultra-efficient aircraft are ideally suited to address mounting challenges presented to airlines by high fuel costs and an ever-competitive passenger market seeking comfort and low fares.”
In the wider Latin American market, Airbus foresees a 20-year demand for more than 2,307 new aircraft, including 1,794 single-aisle, 475 twin-aisle and 38 very large aircraft, estimated at approximately $292 billion. This isaround 7.9 per cent of the total estimated global demand for new aircraft from the manufacturer.
With more than 800 aircraft sold and a backlog of almost 400, over 500 Airbus aircraft are in operation throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. In the last 10 years, Airbus has tripled its in-service fleet, while delivering more than 60 per cent of all aircraft operating in the region.
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