The Balkans have become an unexpected hotbed for sales of France’s Rafale combat aircraft.
With the arrival of the first batch of six aircraft for Croatia at the end of last month, neighbor and regional competitor Serbia is planning its own Rafale purchase.
- First Croatian Dassault fighters that arrived in April will lead to end of MiG-21 operations in Europe
- Serbian Rafales would replace MiG-29 and Orao aircraft
After a visit to Paris in early April, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic declared his government had “reached agreements” with manufacturer Dassault Aviation and the French government on a potential purchase of the fighter. Vucic expects to sign a contract for 12 of the aircraft, a deal potentially worth around €3 billion ($3.2 billion), as early as June during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron.
“In times of great challenges, we do everything to preserve our country, and that is why we continue to invest in and strengthen the Serbian Army and our military industry,” Vucic told Serbian media. “Cooperation with France in these areas is of inestimable importance.”
Deliveries of Rafales would represent a dramatic modernization of Serbia’s front-line combat aviation fleet, which is currently made up of Russian- and Belarusian-supplied Mikoyan MiG-29s and Yugoslav-made Soko J-22 Oraos.
A Serbian purchase of the Rafale might appear to represent a pivot away from Russia, its traditional arms supplier, and Vucic himself has said he wants the country to be on the path to closer European relations. Nevertheless, Serbia continues to cultivate ties with Moscow—refusing to sanction or even distance itself from Russia over its the invasion of Ukraine—and to work closely with China. In May, Serbia will be one of just three stops in a tour of European capitals by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, along with Paris and Budapest, Hungary.
Belgrade’s military has been bolstered in recent years by Chinese- and Russian-made air defense systems as well as Russian attack and utility helicopters; it is also the only operator of Chinese armed drones in Europe. Serbia has looked toward Europe in its rearming, too. France and Spain are supplying Belgrade with new utility helicopters and transport aircraft as well as man-portable surface-to-air missiles.
Critics argue that a Rafale deal would be high-risk even for France’s liberal approach to arms sales and that Serbia could use the aircraft to intervene militarily in Kosovo, the breakaway republic over which Serbia fought NATO in 1999. Serbia continues to refuse to recognize Kosovo as an independent state, and tensions between the two have flared into violence over the last two years.
As a condition of the Rafale deal, France is urging Serbia to maintain its course in moving toward closer relations with Europe and is actively encouraging normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo.
“The heart and driving force of our partnership is France’s support for Serbia’s European integration,” Macron said during Vucic’s visit.
Serbia’s choice of the Rafale was influenced in part by Croatia’s decision to opt for the same type. Zagreb is paying €1.15 billion for 12 secondhand Rafales from French Air Force stocks.
With no more secondhand aircraft available, Serbia will need to pay the full price for new-build aircraft and may have to wait in the growing queue behind fellow Rafale export customers such as Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates.
The Rafale proposal was unanimously adopted as the solution for Zagreb’s Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft requirement in May 2021 because of the aircraft’s performance, sensor suite, weapons package and multirole capability. The French fighter won out against pitches for new-build Lockheed Martin Block 70 F-16s, Saab Gripen C/Ds and secondhand F-16s from Israel.
The second batch of six aircraft is scheduled to arrive at the end of 2024, and the full Croatian Rafale fleet is expected to be declared operational in mid-2025.
Croatia had tried to purchase former Israeli Air Force F-16C/D Barak aircraft in an earlier failed iteration of its fighter contest in 2018. The Barak, kitted out with Israeli avionics and sensors, is capable of using Israeli-developed munitions, but the procurement collapsed when the U.S. government demanded that the aircraft be returned to their predelivery configuration—which would have stripped the Israeli systems from them. Zagreb subsequently canceled the deal and declared the contract null and void in January 2019, prompting the relaunch of the tender.
The arrival of the Rafale in Croatia means that the MiG-21’s days are numbered. Reportedly, just four are still operational. Croatia’s MiG-21s are the last ones flying in Europe, since Romania retired the type about a year ago.
