In Boeing's most recent update on orders and deliveries, an interesting detail has come up.
According to an Aviation Week analysis of the June data, Emirates has converted an order for 16 Boeing 777-8s into the same number of larger -9s.
The development itself was hardly a surprise since Emirates had become skeptical about the initial design of the -8 in the years after it had launched the program. While the updated, larger -8 passenger variant of the aircraft that Boeing presented as a consequence of the freighter version launch was more to Emirates’ liking, management was still disturbed that it had not been informed beforehand about the change. After all, the airline was the type’s launch customer almost 10 years ago.
The move leaves Etihad as the only remaining publicly identified customer of the 777-8. Boeing still lists Etihad for 25 of the 777Xs without detailing the split between the -8 and -9. Like Emirates, Etihad ordered the 777X for the first time at the 2013 Dubai Air Show. At the time, the airline said it will take 17 777-9s and eight -8s. But in 2019, Etihad announced a revision of its widebody order book that included the cancellation of all but six 777-9s. As a sidenote, Etihad back then also ordered 40 A350-900s and 10 -1000s. Thirty of the -900s have since been canceled while 10 have been converted to the -1000s leaving the airline with an order for just 20 of the larger A350s, five of which have been delivered since.
In the more recent past, Etihad appears to have changed strategy again, away from boutique airline status back to more of a connecting model, so it may after all see a need for the -8s again as a result.
Boeing says it is "committed to the 777-8 passenger airplane, which will follow the 777-8 freighter."
The bottom line for Boeing is that at best it only has one remaining order for eight 777-8s (from Etihad). Not that two orders from Etihad and Emirates were necessarily a good basis for the launch of a new aircraft variant, but that the world’s largest 777 operator says no to the smaller version of the 777X family does send a strong signal to the market: if even Emirates is no longer interested in the -8, wouldn’t now be the time for Boeing to drop it entirely?
People who have been in the industry for a while know that is probably not how it works. Boeing and Airbus have launched many derivatives that they ended up never building. Among them are the 787-3, the A350-800 or the A380F. All of them died a slow death until finally the respective manufacturer confirmed the decision years after the demise had become visible. The 777-8 could go the same way, an outcome at this point far more likely than a strong revival, essentially because it is viewed by the market as a heavy aircraft with ultra-long-range capabilities that hardly any operator needs and is willing to pay for, much like the 777-200LR or the A340-500.
Assuming for a moment that there will be no 777-8, the competitive dynamics of the widebody market would change significantly. The 777-9 would become a standalone aircraft in any airline’s fleet, having limited communality only with the first generation 777s. By contrast, Boeing is offering three versions of the 787 and Airbus has two variants of the A350, including the -1000, which is relatively similar to the 777-8 in size, though probably more efficient.
A single type aircraft is never good and there may be more airlines that could think of complementing -9 fleets with a few -8s for certain routes rather than adding another type for that purpose. Therefore, it is also possible that Boeing will keep the -8 anyway. Having it would also give Boeing another tool in A350 campaigns and if the only result of those is lower A350 pricing, then something already has been achieved. The A330neo has had that role to a degree in 787 campaigns until new sales momentum in its own right has started putting the program on a better footing.
But, and this is a rather big but, the 777-8 would be a substantial additional development effort in a troubled program—the -9 is not nearly done yet and then there is the –8F, which is arguably much more important than the smaller passenger version given that it will replace the 747-8F and 777F and will be Boeing’s tool to defend its quasi-monopoly in the large freighter market against the A350F. And if Boeing is serious about building a new technology 737 replacement from 2035, then that program would have to be launched well before 2030, too, adding additional strain on engineering resources.
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